Checking in on the Endangered List

On the heels of US News & World Report's frequency change to monthly, Media Life's Diego Vasquez interviewed blogger The Grim Reaper, who presides over Magazine Death Pool. (Need we say what material the blog covers?)

Ostensible Topic? “Which consumer magazines are the next to fold?” And the discussion looked at the health of the already fragile magazine industry during this current financial meltdown. Grim reveals himself (or herself?) to be very savvy about publishing and to have particular orientation toward the business side.

When asked to name the most vulnerable categories, Grim declared. “shelter, news, entertainment, personal finance, business.” Also he names names or at least titles.

In response to a question about magazine industry layoffs, Grim noted the British view that American magazines have tended to be vastly overstaffed. Reaper added “I do not think many of these positions will be re-opened because there will be less magazines in existence and the industry will have learned that in order to make money and survive, it has to hire people who wear many hats. It's starting to happen now, as reporters and editors are expected to write for both the magazine and the web site.”

Of course, the meltdown is but one condition. There is the larger issue of social climate change. Media is going digital and mobile. Despite Web utilization and even migration, the magazine industry’s structures are built on paper — not unlike a house of cards.

The Punted Word

And we're back!

Associated Press writer Ted Anthony finds much to cheer for in his review of the new anthology 85 Years Of Great Writing In Time (Time Books, 560 pages, $26.95). As the title, imprint and probaby copyright policy indicate, the book is a compilation of pieces that first appeared in Time magazine. Anthony seems to feel that the collection is a good counter argument to the present day rigors of visual and sonic impact, or, as he puts it –“an increasingly visual culture that defines itself through images and rarely slows down to read.”

But when he says, " It's a robust reaffirmation of the printed word," I have to reach for my blue pencil. The book doesn't show the value of the printed word. It shows the value of the word, so help me Homer. When we, I mean, our shivering little species, moved from the oral tradition to getting it in writing, there probably were people who lamented the way the written word replaced the spoken word.

In his review, Anthony notes, quite rightly good journalism can impart thoughts, information, feeling, social context and passion without once resorting to bullet points or condensed "news you can use." One argument against the written or any other kind of word is Anthony's observation that "The decades unfold before us like a Billy Joel song:” But then again it's a literary review and not a music review.

DIGITAL, DIGITAL, DIGITAL (AND PORTABLE TOO)

In his Advertising Age article (“Trends to Watch in 2008”), Bob Liodice, president-CEO of the Association of National Advertisers (ANA), follows up on Steve Ballmer’s claim that all media is going digital. He notes the richness of digital features —including the portability — and wonders if marketers are skilled enough to take advantage of this rapidly changing landscape?” We might ask the same question of the folks who make the media — you know, like magazine publishers?

Paradigm Gained

Happy Holiday!
Digital music downloads march on as this Independent article attests.

Australian Bookseller offers Dutch ebook Reader

The Australia’s Herald Sun reports that bookseller Dymocks is selling ebook reader the iLiad. The device which uses the mobibook format also accommodates a variety of formats including html and pdf. A nice twist to the iLiad is that the screen is touch-sensitive and — with a supplied stylus — you can do such things as Suduko and crossword puzzles, make notations or sketch. It’s a pricey $899 Australian (or $750 US). The iLiad comes from iRex, a Royal Philips spinoff. Hmm. Wasn’t Philips the co-creator of the audio CD-ROM, the LP buster?

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It's Eisie's Birthday

Today is the birthday of Alfred “Eisie” Eisenstadt, referred to in his 25 August, 1995 New York Times obit as the “quintessential Life photographer. One of a band of Leica-bearing photojournalists, Eisenstadt made some of the pictures that became cultural icons. This was back in the day when magazines, particularly Life were considered mass media. Most notable among these was his Times Square shot of a sailor and woman kissing on V-J Day. The use of the compact 35mm rangefinder camera technology brought an amazing change to the priint magazine platform.

Magazine Hunting Season

Back on 30 November “Magazine Death Pool” blog’s The Reaper announced that the next 60-90 says are “officially magazine hunting season and” offered these telltale signs.

Take a good look. Many ads? Can you get the same stuff easily on the web? Does the content seem pointless? It may be time to start saving back issues as souvenirs of the "good old magazine days."

We would add the following: How sharply focused is the editorial? How fetching are the covers? Are retail copies moving? Is there effective consumer marketing going on? (This last is based on the touching notion that consumer magazines are consumer products and as such might even benefit from consumer marketing.) Is there any marketing going on at all? Does it vibrate with today and tomorrow or does it reek of yesterday?

A New Kind of Hope

In his latest “Bo Sacks Speaks Out,” Bob Sacks tells of the plaintive reader requests for good news about the survival of print. He honestly and sympathetically explains that he tries to find positive gems and that he does pass along what he finds. But there isn’t very much.

He says:

"So in my writings and my daily newsletter, I am offering a new kind of hope. Nature abhors a vacuum. For every job that is eliminated in print there are even more new jobs created in the digital arena. Look it up. It is in the US census bureau data. Graphics jobs, editorial jobs, production jobs, and jobs we have never heard of. Those jobs are the new frontier. And it is growing by leaps and bounds."

And concludes:

"What I am dead sure of is the future direction of information distribution. The king of the information forest is not tree based life, but silicon based information distribution."

Allow me to insert my own two bytes. Two factors and two factors alone will determine if the tree goes the way of the dinosaur — technology and the marketplace.

Is there available technology to emulate the print magazine digitally? Almost. We already have specifically magazinoid digital formats. We are awaiting a relatively cheap reader. And there is a sense it is coming, so help me Microsoft.

The marketplace is trickier. Marketers and technologists can reason, declare, insist, bluster and foist all they want; but consumers (you know . . . people?) decide what makes sense to them and what doesn’t..

In the mid-‘80s I was at a 20^th Century Fox Home Video press conference at the Consumer Electronics Show. The news? The studio declared it would not distribute to any video dealers who let their customers rent instead of buy. So, how did that turn out?

It is entirely possible that current and future magazine buyers will decide that paper covers screen— no matter how light of weight, portable, convenient, paperish the screening device is. But considering the current and growing comfort with the screen and the digital technology behind it, I’d have to say paper is a paper tiger

As I asked previously, when was the last time you said, “send me a photocopy” and the last time you said, “send me a link?”

Digital, Digital, Digital

Steve Ballmer of Microsoft delivered more than a keynote at the opening of the Association of National Advertisers conference last week. He delivered a shot across the bow of traditional media, including our friend the print magazine.

He stated that in 10 years, all media would be digital and delivered over the Net.

Advertising Age reported the following:

"What if in 10 years we can give you a screen that's this light, this manipulable," he said, pulling a sheet of crumpled paper from his pocket. "That's what hardware will permit over the next 10 years."

Here at Magazine Daze we agree with him. But sad to say his prediction did not receive unanimous agreement.

Brand Week reported

While some of Ballmer’s futurism (such as digital media that’s as thin and malleable as paper) seemed a bit too sci-fi, attendee Eric Leininger said never bet against Microsoft’s predictions.

And

others, however, weren’t buying. Motorola CMO Casey Keller said that Ballmer “was speaking in hyperbole. At a high level he is right, but I don’t think traditional media will die in 10 years.”

Come on folks, that paper-thin reader is coming. After all if we can put a golf ball on the moon . . .etc., etc.

Cell Phone Novels

In Web mag 3:AM Roland Kelts tells about how the recording industry is trying to cope with the downloadable, digital sea change. Kelts, author of Japanamerica: How Japanese Pop Culture has Invaded the US, suggests the US publishing industry might be in worst shape than the music biz. US book publishers, he suggests, are in denial. He cites as contrast the Japanese embrace of “cell phone novels.”

Kelts writes,

“when I raised the topic of cell phone novel downloads as a promising new format for writers like me and publishers like mine in the U.S., a prominent and progressive editor from one of New York’s major international houses shook his head. “They’d just outsource the work [of producing the downloads] to someone in Chennai [India],” he said, referring to his superiors. “And it would just be a mess.”

He adds,

“When the concept of the electronic book (E-book) surfaces at the American Book Association conventions, or other major book fairs, Western publishers begin their moaning and dread. But in Japan, the success of downloadable cell phone novels is being celebrated by young editors, who are pursuing the format avidly.”

If it’s any consolation to our bibliopeers, the magazine industry has a louder chorus of digital deniers. The most forward of these talk about cross-platforms —marketing and content programs that encompass Web and print and mobile and whatever other media platform buzzword is floating around. Fine!

But this neatly ignores the evidence that the foundations of print magazine publishing —readership, advertising, circulation —are collapsing.

Indicators, Shmindicators

There’s a simple formula that always helps when writing a blog about magazines. Just start with the phrase, “Samir Husni writes, “ . . .” and then blithely go on to agree or disagree with quoted comment, while adding a riff of your own. What’s the point of being involved with magazines if you can’t be formulaic? So here goes.

In yesterday’s Bulldog Reporter’s Daily’ Dog, “Samir Husni writes,

“When sporting events see small crowds, you don't hear the managers bemoaning the death of a sport; when stocks prices fall, you don't hear CEOs complaining that money is no longer a viable product; but for some reason a drop in new magazine launches makes our industry think our days are numbered.

The numbers this year are lackluster at best, but there is no reason to think this is the first step down a slippery slope to the death of the magazine industry. Just as many other industries experience every few years, we are seeing nothing more than a market correction. I said a few years back that we would see something like this during 2007 and 2008 with a rebound to normal form in 2009.”

Okay. Professional sports are not going out of business and money is probably here for the long haul. BUT some sports do crash and burn when they can’t take root. And some sports franchises move to (they hope) greener pastures. When people with means find one marketplace isn’t working, they move their action into an entirely marketplace.

I’m not sure that the quantity of magazine launches is a reliable indicator of industry health. I suspect they certainly are a good barometer of both individual and zeitgeist passion, and perhaps a slight indicator of the prevalence of bipolar disorder. The quantity of new specials and annuals might deserve notice. These are forays by experienced publishers into established markets.

The article’s main thrust was to remind PR practitioners of the classic rule of pitching: Know thy audience. In this case, Samir Husni was advising publicists that mass email blasts are not as effective as targeting niche publications and niche specialty freelancers.

It got me to musing, possibly even thinking. One of my wonderments about the consumer magazine segment is how little it relies on marketing to consumers. Its major marketing efforts are directed at advertisers and retailers. We understand why, of course. But isn’t the magazine a consumer product? Aren’t quality, quantity and loyalty of readership the foundation on which advertising and single sales are based? Or am I missing something?

Finding a Pulse

The 28 September issue of PDNPulse (published online by Photo Dsistrict News) offers encouraging news to magazines — and I don’t agree with a word of it.

It quotes the Economist.

To wit:

There are good reasons why magazine owners should not feel despondent … many of the pleasing characteristics of magazines—their portability and glossiness, for instance—cannot be matched online. And magazines are not losing younger readers in droves in the way that newspapers are … On the advertising side, magazines are faring much better than newspapers, which are losing big chunks of revenue as classified advertising shifts online. Advertisers like the fact that in many genres, such as fashion, readers accept and value magazine ads and even consider them part of the product.”

My response:

1. Although those pleasing characteristics cannot be found online currently, why assume that a digital device —oh say, something like an iPhone — will not come along and totally disrupt paper.
2. Lucky magazines! They’re not crashing like newspapers. They’re just slowly wasting away.
3. And yes, readers do “accept and value magazine ads” and they will continue to do so — no matter what form the magazine may take.

Actually the Economist article does an extensive analysis of the magazine industry and its good news for magazines section is brief and not much of a balm.

In the same article, PDNPulse cites Advertising Age coverage of an MPA breakfast. At this meeting Economist publisher Paul Rossi said that as the increasingly eco-aware public looks at the retail sector’s awful waste of paper and petrol, "We as an industry are next on the list as a target.” He also said that the public will continue to accept magazines in paper form.

Wouldn’t it be lovely to think so.

Comments

It's been a bit since the last post but here I am. again. I thought I might call your attention to two comments about my 24 June post. It's called "SubHub's Super List" and ventures one guess about the future of custom publishing. See below.

CDs and Magazines

The London Telegraph has a story about the magazine business in its business pages today (7 August 2007). Philip Aldrick reported on declining revenues, at EMI. His lead is "The demise of the CD is accelerating. EMI yesterday revealed that its first-quarter revenues from the music format had dropped by nearly a fifth."

Okay, the article is about the recording business, but we should take heed. EMI, one of the recording industry's Giants, was purchased recently for £2.4 billion. That's a lot of pounds but it's a heavyweight company. The article also noted that EMI "posted a 26pc leap in digital revenues."

You don't have to be a graphologist to see the handwriting on the wall.

Let's look at the timeline of recorded sound. Edison applied for a patent for the tin foil cylinder phonograph at the end of 1877. This launched what was to be the cylinder era. The 78 rpm disk became entrenched by the ‘20s. 1948 marked the birth of the 33 1/3 long-playing vinyl record from Columbia records. RCA struck back in 1949 with the 45 rpm. In 1963, Philips gave us the compact tape cassette. Sony, working with its partner Philips, introduced the CD player in 1982 and the compact disc. The CD-ROM has been a commercially available recording medium since 1983.

And now digital downloads are poised to replace CD-ROMs. Despite the recording industry's resources and resistance, the marketplace has voted with its feet — or rather, with its digits. Those pesky consumers apparently want downloadable media. The more they get it, the more they want it. We can chirp happily about the wonders of print — especially its virtues and longevity; but nothing is permanent and — dare I say it?— nothing is sacred.

Good and Bad News for Print from Deloitte

An Advertising Age article, cited by Bob Sacks, contains some very good news for print magazines; but it also is spiced with a bit of foreboding. The piece ("Who Still Reads Magazines? Just About Everybody" by Brian Steinberg) reports on a study of media consumption by Deloitte Services' Technology, Media & Telecommunications group. The study reveals that while the various generational cohorts differ in their media use, they also show commonalities. And that's where we come to the print magazine category.
The survey reveals, according to Ad Age

Almost three-fourths of all consumers choose to read [magazines] even though they can find the same information online. There is also a greater receptivity overall to print ads compared with internet ads, the firm found.

But before we roll out a magazine industry campaign that trumpets this welcome finding, let's not neglect the article's conclusion:

Looking toward the future, Deloitte found that there appears to be significant demand for a portable, stand-alone device that consumers can use to view content as well as communicate with others.

Apparently, nearly 40% of the sample if, left to their own devices, would love to have their media content moved to their own devices.